Britain's Place in the World

This first update is about Britain’s place in the world. Recent events in the Middle East have made that question feel especially urgent. There are worrying implications for the cost of living and energy prices, so the war has a direct impact on domestic policy.

Here are my thoughts on the international situation, the choices facing the UK, and what I think liberals should be arguing for now. I end with small postscript about opinion polls. This is a slightly longer read than usual, so do save it for a quiet moment and a cup of tea.

The Liberal Democrat Spring Conference in York was, unsurprisingly, dominated by the reaction to Trump’s illegal war in Iran. I hope you have had the chance to see Ed Davey’s speech, in which he criticised the Conservatives and Reform for their reflexive support for Trump’s actions and set out a positive alternative: a stronger Britain, working more closely with our European allies.

Ed deserves credit for being one of the few senior British politicians willing to call Trump out from the start. The efforts of Conservative, Reform and, until recently, Labour politicians to curry favour with the Trump administration have not served the national interest.

As some of you know, before entering politics I spent 25 years in the British Diplomatic Service. A decade after leaving the Foreign Office, the international order that, for all its flaws, helped keep this country secure and relatively prosperous for most of my adult life is under real strain.

This is not just about Trump, though the behaviour of this increasingly volatile "ally" has set alarm bells ringing not only in Whitehall but in capitals across the world. The deeper problem is that the web of formal and informal alliances on which Britain relied for decades no longer looks permanent or secure.

Today the institutions at the heart of the world order — the United Nations, NATO, the European Union, the WTO and others — are all under pressure. There is no single cause. The crisis reflects the legacy of the financial crash, the rise of authoritarian leaders around the world, the US retreat from its old global role, and a rapid shift of economic power from West to East. The impact on the UK has been compounded by underinvestment in our own security, and by Brexit. Trump has simply accelerated all of that.

Even after Trump leaves the scene, I do not believe we can assume that the United States will once again guarantee our security or act as the effective enforcer of the global economic rules on which countries like ours depend.

The liberal way forward

Our task as liberals is to preserve what worked in the old order while building the partnerships and institutions we will need in a more dangerous age, reflecting confidence in our values and core beliefs. As Mark Carney showed in Davos earlier this year, there is a serious liberal response to these challenges waiting to be developed, with middle-sized powers committed to liberal values seizing the initiative. 

My strong impression from Spring Conference was that the Liberal Democrat foreign and security team — Calum Miller (Foreign Affairs), James MacCleary (Defence), Al Pinkerton (Europe), Monica Harding (International Development) and Joshua Reynolds (Trade and Investment) — are ready to help shape that response. If you want a sense of how Calum approaches these questions, I recommend this short article.

The UK's European vocation

Any serious foreign policy must begin with a fundamental reshaping of the UK’s relationship with the EU — not the limited “reset” now on offer from the government, but a clear road map back towards full membership. In 2022 the Liberal Democrats set out a four-step process for doing this, beginning with rebuilding trade and moving towards deeper integration with the Single Market and EU institutions, including on defence and security. In December, Al Pinkerton secured a parliamentary vote in favour of rejoining a customs union with the EU. The vote was not binding on the government, but it was an important step forward.

International events have only strengthened my view that this work must move faster. Some politicians in other parties are now rediscovering Europe, but slogans are not a substitute for strategy. The UK needs to persuade EU governments that Britain is serious about reintegration and would not simply reverse course again.

Nuclear deterrence

Before I finish, I should mention Ed’s most striking Conference proposal: that the UK should begin thinking seriously about developing a fully independent nuclear deterrent. That has understandably prompted debate, including within our own local party. There are major questions, above all on cost, which will need to be worked through. But the central point behind the proposal — that we can no longer assume the US will always underwrite our security — is sound.

It is a sobering reflection of where we now are that ALL the defence and security options open to Britain carry difficult costs and trade-offs.

I am glad Ed has opened this debate. It is a debate that other parties — especially the Conservatives and Reform, with their strong attachments to parts of the American Right — will resist for as long as possible. The Liberal Democrats, with a strong internationalist tradition and a clear sense of this country's European vocation, are well placed to chart an alternative path forward.

Ed’s speech also underlined the risks of easy answers from elsewhere. The Greens remain committed to unilateral nuclear disarmament. Zack Polanski has argued for leaving NATO. In today’s world, those positions are not signs of realism; they are evasions of reality. 

Postscript: a thought on opinion polls

Last week’s YouGov national opinion poll put the Liberal Democrats on 14%, just three points behind both Labour and the Conservatives on 17%. Had someone told me after the last general election that, by mid-2026, we would be within the margin of error of the two traditional main parties, I would have taken it gladly.

But that is only part of the picture. Reform, on 25%, and the Greens, on 19%, are taking much of the attention. Time will tell whether this is a passing phase or the start of a deeper realignment in British politics.

Either way, there is a lesson for us. In our fragmented media environment, parties on the populist extremes often find it easier to command attention. 

The encouraging news is that we have some outstanding communicators among the MPs elected in 2024 — for example Jess Brown-Fuller in neighbouring Chichester. I am confident that we have the talent to win that battle as well.

I hope you've enjoyed this first email. Next time, I intend to look at economic and energy policy, not least in light the impact of the Iran war on the global economy.